There are many indexes and securities that have been stuck in ranges for the past several weeks, in an unusually low volatility period during a time when worldly current events have been anything but stable. As far as the markets are concerned, we are waiting for some breakouts from those ranges to give us a better indication of which direction markets may take in the months ahead. The following are some of the more important items and levels we are monitoring: The Dow Industrials are trading in a 19,700–20,100 range for eight weeks, and a clear breakout could be good for another 1000points in the same direction as a breakout. Crude Oil has been stuck mostly in a $50–$55 range for the past 10 weeks. Breaking through either level would give a technical target for a move of at least another $5 in the direction of a breakout. Interest Rates have also been in a range for 10 weeks, with the 10-year Treasury note trading between 2.3% and 2.6% for the period, and once again with a projection of a 0.3%+ move expected in the direction of whichever way it breaks out.
A breakout of the ranges could be meaningful, and considering how they have all been in these ranges for similar time periods, the breakouts may also happen at about the same time. But for now, they continue to creep along within their recent boundaries,
waiting for a catalyst for change.
On e exception is Propylene, which broke the 40 cpp level in US for January, Feb we expect another increase of 5 cpp, March flat to Feb, then Q2 drifting downwards to hit 40 cpp in June July. European propylene is expected to once again increase in March by 25-30 Euro, and drift along with lower Q2 levels. In Asia a heavy turnaround season means propylene remains $950 into March and April when Asian crackers are off line.